At the heart of the strategy “predictability” is a formula by which players can determine the number of goals that will be scored by the home and guest team, thus predicting the most likely score.
1. Determination of the probable number of goals scored by the home team. To do this, you need to get the arithmetic mean of goals scored in home matches, that is, find out how much the team scores on their field on average. And then add to this number the average number of goals conceded by the away team in away matches. After that, the resulting amount is divided by two. This will allow us to find out the probable number of goals of the home team in the upcoming match. Let’s denote this value by the letter D.
2. Calculation of the most probable number of goals of the guest team. First, we learn the arithmetic mean of the goals scored by the away team, and then we add the arithmetic mean of the goals conceded by the home team in the matches on their field. And then divide what happened into two. Thus, we will determine how many goals should be expected from the guest team in this match. And this value is denoted by the letter G.
3. We get a probable score, which is presented in the form of D:G. That is, D – goals scored by the home team, G – goals of the guest team.
And now from theory to practice – consider the use of the strategy game “predictability” on the example of the match Lille – Marseille. The first step is to calculate the value of D. Lille on his field scored 26 goals in 18 matches, the average score in home games 26/18 = 1.44 goals. Marcel in 18 games away missed 20 goals, an average of 20/18 = 1.11 goals. D = (1.44 + 1.11) / 2 = 1.27. Likely number of goals Lille in this match, the 1.27, i.e., likely, 1 goal, but can and 2 ball.
The value of D was calculated, so we proceed to the calculation of G. Marcel in 18 away matches scored 32 goals, which is 1.77 goals on average per game. Lille missed in 18 games on his field 8 goals, that is, an average of 0.44 goals. G = (1.77 + 0.44) / 2 = 1.10.
What we have? The probable score of this match is 1.27: 1.10, that is 1:1. Based on this, you can bet TM(2.5), both score, 1X and so on.